Can more people around the world live their happier and more successful lives based upon their future scenarios?

Dear Michael:

Thank you for your kind e-mail.

Yes, I think scenario planning could help many people in their personal lives. For example, if people would just think more about the top three uncertainties we all face in life – regarding health, wealth and social harmony – we might make better decisions. I fear, however, that few people have the mental discipline or skill set to follow such a disciplined approach as scenario planning.

In my books Decision Traps and Winning Decisions – both coauthored with Prof Russo from Cornell University – we address the case of individual decision making in more detail, but again within the context of professional decision making rather than personal. The style, skills and advice needed for a good book about personal decision making are not our comparative advantage I feel.

Best wishes in your path toward brilliant decisions. Paul

Paul J.H. Schoemaker, Ph.D.
Tel: (610) 525 0495 (Fax 0864)

Executive Chairman, Decision Strategies International, Inc. Research Director, Mack Center for Technological Innovation
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania————————————————–

PS. Please check out the following new publications of ours:The Wisdom of Making Deliberate Mistakes, Harvard Business Review, June 2006.
Peripheral Vision: Detecting the Weak Signals That Will Make or Break your Company, Harvard Business School Press, 2006.
Are You a ‘Vigilant Leader’? Sloan Management Review, Spring 2008.


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